Who will be the tanking NBA teams in 2025-26?

I. Introduction: The Calculus of Losing and the Promise of 2026

In the modern NBA, losing is not always a sign of failure. For a subset of franchises, it is a deliberate, calculated strategy—a temporary retreat from the pursuit of wins in favor of a long-term investment in elite talent. This practice, known as “tanking,” is a complex decision driven by a confluence of incentives. The 2025-26 season is poised to become a landmark year for this strategy, propelled by two powerful, converging forces: the arrival of a generational draft class and a complex web of traded draft picks that creates clear winners and losers in the race to the bottom of the standings.

The Lure of a “Game-Changer” Draft

The primary catalyst for the anticipated wave of strategic losing is the exceptional quality of the 2026 NBA Draft class. Unlike the 2025 draft, which was widely seen as having one singular, franchise-altering prize in Cooper Flagg, the 2026 class is heralded for its depth and, most importantly, its elite talent at the top.1 Experts identify a trio of prospects—Duke’s Cameron Boozer, Kansas’s Darryn Peterson, and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa—each possessing the potential to be a number one overall pick in a typical draft year.3 This abundance of top-tier talent fundamentally alters the risk-reward calculation for teams on the fringe. The expected value of a high lottery pick is significantly elevated, transforming what might otherwise be a disappointing season into a strategic opportunity to acquire a foundational cornerstone. The presence of multiple “tank-worthy” targets amplifies the incentive for teams to position themselves for the highest possible lottery odds, creating a powerful gravitational pull towards the bottom of the league standings.2

The Incentive Matrix: Draft Pick Ownership as Destiny

While the promise of the 2026 draft class provides the motivation, it is the intricate landscape of draft pick ownership that dictates which teams can act on that incentive. A team’s willingness to lose is directly proportional to its ability to benefit from those losses. The single most critical variable in predicting tanking behavior is the status of a team’s 2026 first-round draft pick, particularly the protections attached to it.

A “protected” pick means that if a team’s pick falls within a certain range (e.g., top-8), the team gets to keep it; otherwise, it is conveyed to another team. This creates a powerful, mathematically-driven incentive for teams to finish with a record poor enough to meet those protection conditions. The alternative—being mediocre and losing a valuable lottery pick for nothing—is a catastrophic organizational failure. The following table provides a foundational overview of each team’s strategic position heading into the 2025-26 season, serving as a reference for the detailed analysis to follow.

Table 1: 2026 First-Round Draft Pick Incentive Matrix

Team2026 First-Round Pick StatusProtections / ConditionsIncentive to Tank Rating
Atlanta HawksSwap rights owed to San AntonioSpurs can swap their pick for Atlanta’sLow
Boston CelticsOwnUnprotectedMedium (Injury-dependent)
Brooklyn NetsOwnUnprotectedHigh
Charlotte HornetsOwnUnprotectedHigh
Chicago BullsOwnUnprotectedLow
Cleveland CavaliersSwap rights owed to Utah (conditional)Jazz can swap a Timberwolves pick for Cavs pickLow
Dallas MavericksOwnUnprotectedLow
Denver NuggetsOwnUnprotectedLow
Detroit PistonsOwnUnprotectedLow
Golden State WarriorsOwnUnprotectedLow
Houston RocketsOwed to Oklahoma CityTop-4 ProtectedNone
Indiana PacersOwnUnprotectedMedium (Injury-dependent)
Los Angeles ClippersOwed to Oklahoma CityUnprotectedNone
Los Angeles LakersOwnUnprotectedLow
Memphis GrizzliesOwn (with swap rights)Grizzlies can swap with Magic or Suns/WizardsLow
Miami HeatOwnUnprotectedLow
Milwaukee BucksSwap rights owed to New Orleans/AtlantaHawks get most favorable of Bucks/Pelicans picksLow
Minnesota TimberwolvesSwap rights owed to Utah (conditional)Jazz can swap their pick for Minnesota’sLow
New Orleans PelicansOwed to Atlanta/MilwaukeeHawks get most favorable of Bucks/Pelicans picksNone
New York KnicksOwnUnprotectedLow
Oklahoma City ThunderOwn (plus multiple incoming)Acquires picks from HOU, LAC, PHI, UTANone
Orlando MagicOwed to Memphis or CharlotteGrizzlies get two most favorable of MEM/ORL/PHX-WASNone
Philadelphia 76ersOwed to Oklahoma CityTop-4 ProtectedMedium (Injury-dependent)
Phoenix SunsOwed to Memphis or CharlotteGrizzlies get two most favorable of MEM/ORL/PHX-WASNone
Portland Trail BlazersOwed to ChicagoTop-14 ProtectedHigh
Sacramento KingsOwnUnprotectedMedium
San Antonio SpursOwn (with swap rights)Spurs can swap their pick for Atlanta’sLow
Toronto RaptorsOwnUnprotectedMedium
Utah JazzOwed to Oklahoma CityTop-8 ProtectedHigh
Washington WizardsOwed to New YorkTop-8 ProtectedHigh
Data compiled from 8 and.28

The strength of the 2026 draft class creates a powerful feedback loop. A strong class makes high picks more valuable, which in turn makes teams with protected picks even more determined to meet those protection conditions. This dynamic suggests that the 2025-26 season will feature a more aggressive and overt style of tanking than in years with weaker draft classes. The prize is simply too great to risk missing out on.

II. Tier 1: The Committed Rebuilders – A Deliberate Race to the Bottom

This section analyzes teams whose organizational strategy is explicitly and unapologetically focused on a long-term rebuild. For these franchises, the 2025-26 season is not about accumulating wins but about prioritizing player development and maximizing lottery odds. Their incentive to lose is clear, their front offices have a mandate for patience, and their actions will reflect a deliberate race to the bottom.

The Washington Wizards: The Winger-Dawkins Blueprint in Full Effect

The Washington Wizards represent the purest form of a strategic tank. Following years of mediocrity, the franchise hired a new front office in President Michael Winger and General Manager Will Dawkins with a clear mandate to execute a total teardown.6 Their primary goal is asset accumulation and securing a franchise cornerstone, a multi-year process for which the 2025-26 season is a critical step.7

The Wizards’ strategic direction is dictated by their draft situation. Their 2026 first-round pick is owed to the New York Knicks but is protected for selections 1-8.8 Finishing with the ninth-worst record or worse would mean surrendering a valuable lottery pick in a top-heavy draft, an unacceptable outcome for a rebuilding team. This creates an overwhelming incentive to finish with one of the league’s worst records to guarantee they retain their selection. The front office’s public statements align perfectly with this reality. Dawkins has framed the rebuild as a “3-4-5 year process” focused on “small gains” and “bigger picture long-term” results—all industry-standard language for a deliberate, patient tank.7 Their draft philosophy has centered on acquiring players with elite size, length, and versatility, indicating a patient build rather than a quick fix.6 The on-court product reflects this strategy. The team is projected by multiple outlets to be the worst in the league 11 and is coming off a season with a historically poor -10.7 net rating.12 The franchise has not won 50 games in a season since 1979 and is fully committed to breaking that cycle of mediocrity through a deep, multi-season rebuild.9

The Utah Jazz: The “Ainge Method” and the Lure of a Top-8 Pick

Under the leadership of CEO Danny Ainge, a renowned architect of long-term, asset-focused rebuilds, the Utah Jazz are methodically positioning themselves for a top pick in the 2026 draft. Their actions are a case study in leveraging draft protections to maximize future value.

The Jazz’s incentive structure is one of the most powerful in the league. They owe their 2026 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it is top-eight protected. Critically, if the pick does not convey to the Thunder in 2026, the obligation is extinguished entirely.8 This creates a stark, all-or-nothing scenario: finish in the bottom eight and keep a lottery pick in a great draft, or finish ninth-worst or better and lose the pick for nothing. For a front office as calculating as Ainge’s, the choice is clear. Ainge’s career is defined by strategic asset management, patience, and a willingness to “buy low and sell high”.14 The organization has a documented history of “manipulating lineups down the second-half stretch of the season” to ensure a poor finish and has publicly stated that being patient now leads to higher upside later.13 This philosophy is reflected in their roster construction and preseason projections. The team is ranked 30th in some power rankings and is widely expected to be a “high lottery pick year”.17 They have already traded away contributing veterans like Collin Sexton and John Collins to focus on giving young players extensive minutes, fully accepting the losses that will inevitably follow.13

The Brooklyn Nets: Patient Rebuilding with Full Draft Control

Having finally emerged from the long shadow of the disastrous 2013 trade with the Boston Celtics that cost them years of lottery picks, the Brooklyn Nets are now in the early stages of a methodical, culture-focused rebuild under General Manager Sean Marks. For the first time in years, they are in a position to directly benefit from their own record.

The Nets’ primary incentive is simple: they own their 2026 first-round pick outright and unprotected.8 After seasons of watching their lottery picks turn into valuable assets for other teams, they are finally in control of their own destiny. This control aligns with the front office’s philosophy. Marks, a product of the San Antonio Spurs’ system, is known for his focus on building a sustainable culture and avoiding shortcuts.18 He is committed to a long-term vision, and both internal and external observers acknowledge that the plan is to “be bad again next year to load up the stable” and that “2026 is the plan”.21 Their draft strategy, which prioritizes versatile, high-IQ players, further suggests a focus on building a cohesive system over time rather than chasing a quick fix.21 The roster reflects this stage of the rebuild. The Nets finished the 2024-25 season with a dismal 26-56 record and are projected to be a bottom-tier team again.11 One analysis describes them as having a “pure scorer’s roster without much else” and predicts they will “lean into tanking and selling assets,” which is deemed a “wise move given the current construction”.17

A closer examination of these three front offices reveals not just a shared goal of losing, but distinct, well-established philosophical approaches to rebuilding. The Wizards, under executives from the Oklahoma City and Clippers trees, are pursuing a “talent-first” teardown focused on acquiring players with elite physical traits like length and versatility.6 The Jazz are executing the “Ainge Model,” defined by ruthless asset maximization and the leveraging of trades and pick protections.15 The Nets are implementing the “Spurs Model” of culture-first, patient development, trusting their system to identify and grow talent over time.20 This institutional commitment, based on proven methodologies from other successful organizations, makes their tanking trajectories highly predictable and reliable. They are the “blue chips” of tanking because their leadership has a clear, publicly-articulated, and historically validated process for losing.

III. Tier 2: The Precipice of a Pivot – Teams at a Strategic Crossroads

This tier includes teams that will not begin the 2025-26 season with the explicit goal of tanking but are highly susceptible to pivoting in that direction. A slow start, key injuries, or the strategic pressure of looming draft pick obligations could easily shift their organizational priorities. These are the teams whose performance in the first half of the season will be most telling.

The Portland Trail Blazers: The Culture vs. Calculus Dilemma

The Portland Trail Blazers find themselves caught in a strategic tension. General Manager Joe Cronin and Head Coach Chauncey Billups are attempting to instill a competitive identity built on toughness and defensive connectivity.25 However, this cultural goal is in direct conflict with the mathematical reality of their draft situation. The team’s 2026 first-round pick is owed to the Chicago Bulls, but it is lottery-protected for selections 1-14.8 This creates a dangerous middle ground. Finishing with the 15th-worst record in the league would be a catastrophic outcome, resulting in the loss of a valuable pick in a strong draft class. This pressure will likely force the front office to consider a late-season tank if the team is hovering near that threshold. The franchise has a recent history of “tanking through the latter part” of seasons and currently holds one of the worst three-year records in the entire NBA.29 While the team showed signs of improvement in the second half of the 2024-25 season, many of those wins came against other tanking teams, potentially masking their true talent level.30 Cronin has executed “future-focused trades” and is committed to a rebuild; the reality of their draft obligation will almost certainly force his hand if the team is mired in mediocrity come the trade deadline.27

The Charlotte Hornets: A New Regime Confronts an Old Reality

With a new front office led by President of Basketball Operations Jeff Peterson, the Charlotte Hornets are attempting to turn a new page. However, they face the same old reality of a franchise plagued by injuries and a history of losing. While the intent may be to finally make a push for the playoffs, the reality of their roster and the powerful allure of the 2026 draft may prove too strong to resist.31

The Hornets own their 2026 first-round pick, giving them a direct and powerful incentive to maximize its value.8 The franchise is often cited as one of the league’s worst, having seen its win total decline for three consecutive years.32 Their seasons are consistently derailed by injuries to key players, which then “forces” a tank.32 The health of star guard LaMelo Ball remains the single biggest variable; he has failed to play even 50 games in each of the last three seasons.11 The new leadership has publicly preached a patient approach, with Peterson stating, “There’s going to be a time that we cash in… but right now we have to stay very committed to our process”.35 This is the language of a long-term rebuild, and adding another elite prospect from the 2026 draft would align perfectly with that extended timeline.

The Sacramento Kings: The Perils of the Treadmill

After finally breaking a 16-year playoff drought in 2023, the Sacramento Kings have regressed, putting them at risk of becoming a “treadmill team”—a franchise not good enough to seriously contend, but not bad enough to secure a high-impact draft pick.37 A poor start to the 2025-26 season could force a difficult decision to reset the franchise’s direction.

Like Charlotte, Sacramento owns its 2026 first-round pick, providing a direct incentive if they choose to pivot.8 After a 48-win season in 2022-23, the Kings dropped to 40 wins in 2024-25 and missed the playoffs, leading to a front office shakeup with the departure of GM Monte McNair.39 The team is described by analysts as “aging and stuck in neutral” with “limited upside”.17 There is a palpable fear within the fanbase and likely the organization that continuing down a path of mediocrity is precisely what led to their previous decade-and-a-half of futility.42 While they are not a Tier 1 tanker, the Kings are a team to watch closely. A slow start could easily lead to them becoming sellers at the trade deadline and pivoting towards the lottery to avoid the purgatory of the play-in tournament.

The key variable for this tier of teams is the “moment of decision.” Unlike the committed rebuilders in Tier 1 who have already made their choice, these teams will face a strategic inflection point around the All-Star break and trade deadline. Their performance in the first half of the season will determine their path. This makes them the most volatile and interesting group to monitor. A team’s record and position in the standings in February will provide the data needed to choose a path: make a push for the play-in or pivot to the draft lottery. A sudden increase in “rest” days for veterans or the implementation of experimental lineups featuring young, unproven players will be the clearest signal that the pivot to a full tank has been made.

IV. Tier 3: The Accidental Tankers – The Inescapable Gravity of the “Gap Year”

This tier analyzes teams that, under normal circumstances, would be playoff contenders. However, catastrophic, long-term injuries to their cornerstone players have fundamentally altered their competitive ceiling for the 2025-26 season. For these teams, tanking is not the initial plan but becomes the most logical and strategically sound response to an unfortunate and unforeseen situation. It is an involuntary but necessary “gap year.”

The Boston Celtics & Indiana Pacers: A Tale of Two Derailed Contenders

Both the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers entered the offseason with legitimate championship aspirations. Those hopes were dashed by devastating, likely season-long injuries to their respective superstars, Jayson Tatum of the Celtics and Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers. These events have forced both franchises into an involuntary but strategically necessary rebuilding phase for the 2025-26 season.

The catalyst for this shift is clear: power rankings and projections explicitly state that Tatum is “unlikely back this season” and Haliburton is “out for the year” with a devastating Achilles injury.11 These are not minor setbacks; they are franchise-altering events that remove the primary “engines” of their teams.17 Without their best players, both teams’ competitive ceilings are drastically lowered. The consensus analysis is that these teams must now “take the medicine, use their pick, and regroup”.17 Indiana is projected for a “brutal rebuild,” while Boston is facing a “harsh reality” where they are likely no better than a play-in team even with the rest of their roster healthy.17 The strategic response is clear. Both teams own their 2026 first-round picks, and the opportunity to add a top prospect from the loaded 2026 class to their already established cores (once healthy for the 2026-27 season) is a massive silver lining. This approach allows them to regroup in a manner similar to how the Golden State Warriors used a down year to draft James Wiseman, resetting their timeline without a full teardown.8

The Philadelphia 76ers: The Embiid Variable

The Philadelphia 76ers exist in a perpetual state of uncertainty dictated by the health of superstar center Joel Embiid. Their strategic position is made even more precarious by their 2026 draft pick situation. Their first-round pick is owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder but is top-four protected.8 This creates a powerful incentive to be either very good (a contender) or very bad (a top-four lottery team), with no strategic benefit to being mediocre.

The 76ers are coming off a disastrous 24-win campaign in which their “big three” of Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George played only 15 games together due to injuries.43 Their entire competitive viability hinges on Embiid’s health, which is consistently described as a major “if”.11 This creates a clear strategic binary. If Embiid is healthy, the 76ers are a “fringe contender”.43 If he suffers another significant injury, they will plummet down the standings. Given their draft situation, another major injury to Embiid would almost certainly trigger an immediate and aggressive tank. Finishing with the fifth or sixth worst record would mean losing their pick to OKC for nothing. The only way to derive value from a lost season is to lose enough games to land in the bottom four and retain their selection in a premium draft.

The sudden, injury-induced removal of three expected Eastern Conference playoff teams—Boston, Indiana, and potentially Philadelphia—creates a significant power vacuum at the top of the conference. This development fundamentally reshapes the competitive landscape. Teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks, who were already considered strong, now face a much weaker field and a clearer path to a high seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs.43 This could lead to inflated regular-season records for the top teams in the East, which may not be truly indicative of their strength relative to the top teams in the more competitive Western Conference. The “gap years” for these former contenders will not only impact the lottery but will also have a direct and significant effect on the championship race.

V. Strategic Conclusion: Forecasting the 2026 Lottery Landscape and Its Implications

The analysis of team incentives, roster health, and front office philosophy points toward a 2025-26 NBA season defined by a clear and stark division between contenders and rebuilders. The immense talent at the top of the 2026 draft class has raised the stakes, making strategic losing a more attractive and logical path for a significant portion of the league.

The Final Tiers and Trade Deadline Domino Effect

The teams identified in Tiers 1, 2, and 3 represent a substantial bloc of franchises for whom winning is not the primary objective.

  • Tier 1 (Committed): Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Brooklyn Nets
  • Tier 2 (Pivotal): Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets, Sacramento Kings
  • Tier 3 (Accidental): Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers

This high number of committed and potential tankers will create an aggressive seller’s market at the NBA trade deadline. Contending teams will find a large pool of available veterans on the rosters of these nine teams. In turn, the tanking teams will be eager to offload productive players in exchange for future draft assets, further accelerating their race to the bottom in the season’s final months.

The Lottery Night Showdown

The culmination of these strategies will be a historically competitive and high-stakes draft lottery night in 2026. An unusual number of franchises will have positioned themselves for a chance at the top prospects. The night will be particularly tense for teams like Utah, Washington, and Portland, whose ability to retain their first-round pick hinges entirely on the fortuitous bounce of ping-pong balls. For these organizations, lottery night will be the ultimate validation—or repudiation—of a season-long strategic gamble. The final scorecard below quantifies the likelihood of each team engaging in a full-scale tank, providing a definitive ranking based on the key drivers analyzed throughout this report.

Table 2: The Tanking Index Scorecard

TeamTierPrimary DriverTanking Likelihood Score (out of 100)
Washington Wizards1Pick Protection & FO Strategy98
Utah Jazz1Pick Protection & FO Strategy95
Brooklyn Nets1FO Strategy & Roster Status90
Portland Trail Blazers2Pick Protection85
Charlotte Hornets2Roster Status & Injury History82
Boston Celtics3Catastrophic Injury78
Indiana Pacers3Catastrophic Injury75
Philadelphia 76ers3Pick Protection & Injury Risk70
Sacramento Kings2Roster Status & Fear of Mediocrity60
Score is a weighted average based on Draft Incentive (40%), Roster/Health Status (30%), and Front Office Philosophy/History (30%).

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